Sunday, June 24, 2007

Latvians Asked To Kindly Stop Spending

Now here's some timely advice from a politician if ever I saw it:

RIGA - Prime Minister Aigars Kalvitis, speaking in a radio interview over the weekend, appealed to Latvians to do their part in bringing down inflation and stop spending so much money.

Kalvitis asked Latvians to be more thoughtful about borrowing money to buy big-ticket items, warning them that the future generation may be forced to foot the bill.

The prime minister, who is under pressure to cool down the overheating economy, reminded Latvians that inflation is triggered by, among other things, exuberant domestic demand.
His words, however, are likely to fall on deaf ears, as Latvians continue to enjoy the benefits of cheap money and access to property, cars and consumer durables.
The labor market is definitely working against the government after it was announced on May 31 that the average net monthly salary in the first quarter in Latvia rose 33.4 percent year-on-year to 257.35 lats (366.1 euros).
Gross monthly pay in Latvia grew 23 percent in the first quarter to 357.39 lats,
In the public sector, the monthly average net pay increased year-on-year by 35 percent, reaching 291.2 lats, while in the private sector it advanced 33.4 percent to 241.1 lats.

In Riga, the gross monthly pay in the first quarter was 407 lats, a 31.7 percent increase year-on-year.

The steepest – or 44.4 percent – year-on-year rise in average monthly gross salaries was in the electricity, gas and water supply industry, rising from 370.9 lats to 535.8 lats. The rise was due to irregular payments (regular gross pay increase is 29 percent), the statistics office said.
Given the sharp rise in salaries and high domestic consumption, the government on June 1 reiterated that it did not plan to decrease the personal income tax for now.

“With such high domestic consumption, the cutting the personal income tax is out of question,” said Kalvitis.

Finance Minister Oskars Spurdzins told the Baltic News Service earlier that the government could return to the question of reducing income tax no sooner than 2008.

The government decided in principle last year to reduce the income tax gradually within the next few years from the existing rate of 25 percent to 15 percent.

Saturday, June 23, 2007

Estonia's Inflation Problem

The situation in Latvia described in this post is to some extent paralleled in Estonia:

The Estonian central bank said soaring real estate prices and ``tension'' about wage increases risk destabilizing the economy and fast inflation may keep the Baltic state from adopting the euro before 2011.

The bank forecast in April the $15.1 billion economy will grow 8.4 percent this year, following last year's 11.4 percent expansion, and slow to 6.5 percent in 2008. The central bank today said there was a risk of an even ``sharper'' slowdown in growth.


Estonia's inflation and a widening current-account deficit, at 14.8 percent of gross domestic product in 2006, has raised concern among foreign investors and credit agencies earlier this year that the $15.1 billion economy may overheat, triggering a sudden decline in growth. Estonia delayed euro adoption twice last year as economic growth caused inflation to accelerate.

The central bank also said that the inflation rate, at 5.7 percent in May, is still too high and the risk of a slowdown in wage growth has increased after a 20 percent increase in average wages in the first quarter. It expects consumer prices to rise 5.1 percent this year, well above euro entry criteria, after 4.4 percent in 2006.

House prices in Estonia's capital, Tallinn, jumped 24.5 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the second- fastest growth globally after neighboring Latvia, according to data published last month by Knight Frank residential research in London.

Last month, the cabinet approved a four-year spending plan last week, cutting budget surplus targets in 2008-2011 from 1.5 percent of GDP, announced during a visit by the International Monetary Fund's mission, to 0.5 percent of GDP.


Urmas Paet, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Estonia made the follwing points in a speech in May:

Before joining the European Union, there was much talk in Estonia about a large number of employees moving abroad after accession. According to a poll conducted at the time, 42% of the working age population was interested in working abroad, although, only 3% had any serious intentions of actually doing so. The majority of them were interested in working abroad either temporarily, or from time to time.

Actually, the number of those eventually going abroad proved to be quite manageable – it is estimated that about 20,000 Estonians presently work abroad, which is about 3.3% of the working population. Although this number may increase, it must also be kept in mind that many Estonians have already returned home.

It can be assumed, that the main emigration destinations for Estonians will, for the near future, remain: Finland and Sweden due to their cultural and geographical proximity; and the United Kingdom and Ireland due to their language and fair and comprehensible administrative requirements as well as established networks. While many lower skilled workers go abroad for short periods, then in the case of highly qualified workers, it can be assumed that they remain abroad on a more permanent basis, although this is no rule.

The number of foreigners currently employed in Estonia is considerably smaller. It is estimated, that at least 5,000 foreigners are working in our country. The majority of them are from Finland or Ukraine, 35% work in various managerial positions, and 17% are in shipbuilding. When studying their gross wages, it can be said that our fairly strict policy has ensured, at least until now, that the immigration of labour is in most cases limited to qualified and well paid workers. But, at the same time, the question has been raised quite audibly, whether the bureaucracy involved in bringing highly qualified specialists into the country is perhaps too burdensome and time consuming for businesses.

Thus, the main problems with the shortage of workers are associated not with emigration, but more so with the decreasing and ageing of the population, the lack of required qualifications, as well as the fast development of certain sectors, such as the metal industry, manufacturing, electronics and optical equipment. During the last five years, thanks to the improved family support system, the birth rate in Estonia has increased considerably. But unfortunately, the ratio still remains negative – in 2005 the population decreased by 2,966 people. In the long term, the best means for ensuring the longevity of the population is a sound family policy that promotes a higher birth rate.

It has been predicted that, in the next few years, an average of 11.2 thousand people will irreversibly leave our labour market due to various above mentioned factors. At the same time, for rapid economic development, it is necessary to create about 3,800 new jobs a year. The majority of them are being created in the service and industrial sectors, while the number of workers in agriculture is continuing to diminish. Thus, we will require for about 14.5 thousand additional workers every year, primarily technicians, qualified specialists, and specialised managers.

Thursday, June 21, 2007

Skilled labour In Russia

Bloomberg today had this:

Russia's annual inflation rate rose in May to the highest in four months, as a new law on foreign workers boosted prices of fruits and vegetables.

The inflation rate jumped to 7.8 percent from 7.6 percent in April, the Moscow-based Federal Statistics Service said in an e- mailed statement today.

Russia, the world's 10th biggest economy, passed new restrictions this year for foreign employees working in the country's booming retail industry. The government limited the number of trading places given to non-Russians, which boosted food prices and created inflationary pressures, economists said.

Foreign workers could only hold 40 percent of all jobs in the nation's markets beginning Jan. 1 and the blanket ban took effect April 1. The ban on foreign workers was authorized by a government resolution on Dec. 15, after race riots erupted in the northern town of Kondopoga after Chechens killed two Slavic men in a street fight.


Russia needs migrants to boost its labor force, John Litwack, the World Bank's chief economist in Moscow, said last month. Here is part of one of John Litwack's reports:


COMPETITIVENESS, INNOVATION, AND SKILLED LABOR:
SOME CONCLUSIONS FROM THE WORLD BANK/HIGHER SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS INVESTMENT CLIMATE SURVEY


Considering relatively high wage costs in Russia compared to most other emerging markets, economic growth and competitiveness depend critically on a sufficient supply of highly-skilled and productive workers. In this regard, Russia faces serious problems in both demography and adequate training. In the absence of an acceleration of external migration to Russia, the working age population is due to decline over the medium term (See RER 11). This fact, combined with remaining inefficiencies in the territorial allocation of domestic labor, imply that both external and internal migration will become increasingly critical to Russia’s economic prospects. Results from the ICA survey confirm that many Russian enterprises are already experiencing shortages of skilled labor. Among investment climate constraints, larger Russian manufacturing enterprises rank the importance of “lack of skilled and qualified workforce” only behind taxation (which firms in almost every country rank as a primary constraint). In the survey, twice as many enterprises (27 percent) complained about being understaffed, as opposed to overstaffed (13 percent). Of the firms reporting understaffing, 72 percent complained in particular about a lack of workers with needed skills in the local labor market. Many complaints were also made about wage competition (41 percent), high labor turnover (30 percent), and competition from high labor demand on local markets (23 percent). The overall picture is consistent with one of a significant shortage of qualified labor.

The full report can be found here.


This section in the first Chapter is also interesting:


RER 11 emphasized Russia’s growing needs in both external and internal migration for sustaining rapid growth over the medium and longer term. For external migration, it recommended measures to liberalize and simplify the formal regime in order to bring a large part of the current massive informal migration into the legal sphere. The government has proposed a package of measures for 2007 that is broadly consistent with this overall goal. The liberalization of the migration regime, together with better legal protection of the rights of registered migrants, is a planned part of this package. In its current form, however, new regulations may very well have a net negative effect on migration flows. New measures promise to introduce quotas on migrants that, if enforced, would greatly decrease the number of migrant workers in Russia, as well as regulations that forbid non-citizens to work in open markets. More frequent crackdowns on illegally employed migrants and deportations have become more common. A more hostile and restrictive environment for migrants could have negative consequences for labor supply in Russia. Western European countries face similar conflicting problems of a need for migrant workers and social tensions surrounded mass migration into the country. It should be noted that Russia’s needs in migration are even greater than those of Western Europe.


and this chapter in RER11


Both external immigration and internal migration are crucial for economic growth and welfare in Russia. The country is in the middle of a severe demographic crisis. Ageing and depopulation will most likely continue for decades. In the near future, Russia will also face a particular shortage of working age population. To compensate for this, Russia would need an annual inflow of 1 million immigrants, which is three times as the average official annual flowover the last 15 years, and five times the official flowin recent years. Fortunately, there is a huge potential migrant pool of millions of skilled Russian-speaking residents in former Soviet countries. A legacy of the Soviet period is an irrational geographic allocation of labor and a shortage of larger cities that could be the focal point for diversified growth and development. Social welfare and economic development in Russia depend on fluid and substantial internal migration flows. Policies related to international and internal migration deserve serious attention.


While the population in Russia has been gradually falling since 1992, the decline
in working age population will be especially severe after 2007, especially in central regions, as a long-termconsequence of birth rate behavior in 1980s.10 In order to fully compensate for this drop, there would need to be an annual inflow of about 1 million working age migrants, a number which is three times the average net inflow in the years between the Censuses of 1989 and 2002.


Although Russia’s demographic problems are more serious than those in the European Union, there has been no consistent policy to attract foreign labor, especially high-skilled workers. Instead, the regulatory framework in recent years has become increasingly restrictive towards immigrants. As these regulations are not perfectly enforced and there is no visa regime within the FSU, immigration flows have nevertheless been quite substantial, especially migration from Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan) and the Slavic CIS countries (Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova). The returns to migration fromthese countries remain large. Although undocumented labor flows are not directly observable, data on remittances can be used as s a proxy. Even though the balanceof- payments-based IMF data most likely underestimate the magnitude of remittances, they are still very large, especially for the poorest former Soviet countries (Figure 13). The pattern in Figure 3.1 is consistent with the view that CIS-Russia migration is driven primarily by huge income differentials.

As for the case of international migration, official data underestimate the extent of internal migration flows in Russia. But a numbers of studies have examined the question of internal migration that use a combination of official data, census data, and survey data. On the one hand, internal migration flows in Russia do appear rational in their response to differences in economic conditions. The main trend has been a substantial flow of migrants from colder and more isolated regions to cities in warmer regions. The latest Census revealed that a number of warmer European regions experienced population growth of over 10 percent during 1999-2002, while quite a few Northern and Eastern regions experienced population declines of the same magnitude or greater.17 Economic factors such as real incomes, unemployment, and public goods provision appear to affect migration in an intuitive way. On the other hand, interregional migration flows appear to be rather slow by international standards, and have apparently not picked up in recent years in response to greater regional differences in wages and standard of living.

Immigrants Benefit US by $30bn

The contents of this article (below) are hardly new, but it is interesting to see them gaining currency.

The following point (which is evident):

It also recognises that unskilled immigrants may impose a very small fiscal cost on the government and that more immigration will not solve the problem of financing Social Security and Medicare.

is dealt with in this post. The key point is that it is obvious that more immigration will not SOLVE the financing issue, but it can HELP. Why do people find it so difficult to apply simple reasoning and quantifiers? I think many people are still struggling to understand the difference between *all* and *some*.

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Native-born American workers benefit from immigration by more than $30bn (€22bn) a year, President George W. Bush’s leading economic team claimed on Wednesday.

The report by the Council of Economic Advisers cites research showing immigrants on average also have a “slightly positive” impact on government finances. But it concedes unskilled immigrants may put downward pressure on the position of unskilled native workers.

It also recognises that unskilled immigrants may impose a very small fiscal cost on the government and that more immigration will not solve the problem of financing Social Security and Medicare.

The report comes as Mr Bush and other supporters of immigration reforms – designed to offer a path to US citizenship for illegal migrants and create a new guest-worker programme while beefing up border security – are struggling to keep bipartisan legislation on the issue alive.

The report says immigration changes the relative supply of factors such as unskilled labour, skilled labour and capital in the economy.

“US natives tend to benefit from immigration precisely because immigrants are not exactly like natives in terms of their productive characteristics and factor endowments,” it argues.

Because natives tend to be disproportionately low skilled or highly skilled, they complement, rather than substitute for, the typical American worker.

The CEA also argues that “sharply reducing immigration would be a poorly targeted and inefficient way to assist low-income Americans”.

In addition the report observes that immigrants tend to be more entre­preneurial than native-born Americans, and have lower crime rates.

It finds the fiscal gains from skilled immigration greatly exceed those from unskilled migration, citing a study that estimates skilled immigrants and their descendants contribute a net $198,000 on average to public finances, while those with only a high school diploma cost a net $13,000.

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

External Debta and Net Foreign Liabilities Eastern Europe

Ageing in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

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Changes in Population Age Groups 2006 - 2025


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Eastern Europe Convergence