Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Jesper Koll and the Kuznets Cycle

In a presentation on Japan which I feel really misses the whole point about what is happening there, Jesper Cole produces this most interesting slide:

A Bullish Kusnetz Cycle
Up-Grade of Out-dated Construction Stock – A Bull-Cycle Run Until 2011 ?!

Now why is the slide interesting - or even funny, apart from the fact that the wish isn't going to be fulfilled, that is? Well the Kuznets cycle was a secondary cycle in the general US business cycle which Nobel economist Simon Kuznets identified in the middle of the 19th century (so Koll demonstrates that he is at least erudite). But the whole point about this sub-cycle is that it was driven by population growth, and in particular by immigration growth, and population growth, not to mention immigration growth is something which Japan simply does not have. Hence: no Kuznets Bull Cycle. Sorry.

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